To the history of pandemics: statistics and forecast.




The article is devoted to the study of human experience related to fight against a viral disease known as influenza infection. The outbreaks of the disease occurred over several millennia and described in the surviving documentary sources are considered. The main attention is paid to investigations of native epidemiologists on this problem. In particular, an analysis of works published more than 80 years ago is shown. It is emphasized that some elements of the influenza epidemic described in this publication are in many respects similar to the features of the modern coronavirus pandemic. History of studies devoted to mechanism of infection transmission is described. Significant attention is paid to the developments of scientists associated with the problem of identifying the causative agent of the disease. The contribution of native scientists in revealing the features of the pathogenesis of infection diseases is highlighted. It is noted that important factors in the spread of infection nowadays are globalization and migration processes. It is emphasized that the speed of infectious diseases spread is considerably caused by the capabilities of modern transport too. The history of studies related to the prevention of influenza by immunization and vaccination is reviewed. A comparative analysis of the application of these prophylactic arrangements in a historical retrospective is given. The possibility of preventing the spread of a viral infection by taking appropriate measures was emphasized. The important role of the mass media is indicated, which consists in timely and truthful information of the population. The position of leading modern scientists on this issue, in particular, M. Honigsbaum, K. G. Vasiliev, S. V. Komisarenko etc. is cited. It is summarized, that the works of native epidemiologists L. V. Hromashevskyi, N. F. Gamaleya, D. S. Samoilovych and others has not lost its relevance and can be the basis for the searching effective methods to combat influenza infection in future.